• Neighborhoods of Boston

  • Roslindale
  • Jamaica Plain
  • West Roxbury

• Blog Archives

  • November 2008
  • August 2007
  • July 2007
  • June 2007
  • May 2007

• Popular Posts

  • A Nightmare on kELMan’s Street?

How’s the Real Estate Market Doing in Boston/West Roxbury?

Posted by: Tim White
Posted on: Monday, June 18, 2007 at 10:25 pm
Categories: Financing, Home Selling, Market Conditions, Home Buying, Financing, Home Selling, Home Buying, Market Conditions, West Roxbury, Jamaica Plain, Market Conditions, Home Buying, Financing, Home Selling, Roslindale

As a Realtor, I often get asked the question by random people “how’s the market doing?”  It’s a great question, but one that I am rarely able to fully answer simply because most of the the time the person asking the question is looking for a quick answer (e.g. it’s up, it’s down, it’s holding steady).  Of course, there are times (such as during listing presentations) that I am able to explain more fully the dynamics that are occurring within a given market over a specific period of time regarding a particular property type (e.g. condo, single or multi-family homes), but even then I’m limited by the time allotted, usually by the client, for the presentation.  Nevertheless, the question of ‘how any market is doing’ is one of the most important ones that can be asked, and it deserves a full and comprehensive explanation-which is what I intend to start here today at rehubbub.com and continue to investigate and report on over the coming weeks and months. 

Because the topic is so expansive, however, coupled with the fact there is no one size fits all answer, I’d like to break the question itself and the subsequent answers into manageable pieces of easily digestible information, focusing on one segment of one market at a time.  My hope is, that over the next several months, I will be able to give readers a detailed and comprehensive sense of the current shape of the real estate market in each the neighborhood of Boston, as well as for Boston as a whole.

With respect to all the other wonderful neighborhoods comprising the City of Boston, I will begin this detailed analysis in my own back yard–that is the area of Boston known as West Roxbury (in time I will do the same for all of Boston’s neighborhoods).  Moreover, I will limit the first in this series on West Roxbury market dynamics to single-family homes.  I will further adjust the lens of this analysis by focusing on three (3) important indicators that, when taken together, tell a story as to the overall health of this market segment.  These indicator are as follows:

• Median Sales Price — The mid-point of sale prices, where half the sales are below and half are above said point
• Basic Supply and Demand by Units — The number of For Sale properties versus the number of properties that have gone under contract on a month by month basis
• Month Supply of Inventory (MSI) – Indicates how long the current supply of inventory will last (usually forecast by number of months out) given current market conditions and historical demand

When speaking intelligently about market conditions, or answering the question “how’s the market doing,” a good realtor will be able point to these leading indicators and explain, in plain English, what they mean to a prospective home buyer or seller.  It is, after-all, our job to accurately interpret market conditions and clearly communicate that knowledge to our clients. 

So, starting with the Median Sales Price indicator for Single Family homes in West Roxbury, let us examine the following graph:

First, the obvious:  This graph depicts a 24-month trend-line of median “sold” prices for single family homes in West Roxbury.  At first glance it may seem like the market has fallen of significantly since May of 2005 when the median sales price was $469,250 (May 2007 = $405,000), but there’s more to this story.  When taking this into context and aligned with the next two (2) graphs you will see that the market for single family homes is indeed strong and vibrant.  Has there been an adjustment in sales prices over the past 24 months?  Absolutely.  But it was a necessary correction coming on the heels of a 7-year run with historic highs not likely to be replicated in our lifetimes.  If you look closely, there is only a slight difference (roughly 1%) in median prices between May 2006 and May 2007.  The good news for home sellers is that the market is tightening and forcing an upward trend as is evidenced by nearly a full quarter (Feb-May 2007) of activity.  There is also good news for home buyers here as it is always a good time to invest in real estate when median prices are trending upward.

As I mentioned earlier it takes more than one indicator to tell the whole story.  This next graph illustrates an interesting trend in supply and demand by number of units over the past 24 months. 

What surprised me when I first studied this graph is that the ratio of single family homes under contract versus the total number of homes for sale is higher than at any other time in the past two (2) years.  Where as the last graph had shown us that a downward adjustment in sold pricing did in fact occur, this graph tells us that the market has accepted that correction, and moved on–showing definite signs that we are in a full recovery mode.  By the numbers, this graph shows that the number of for sale properties in May of 2005 was 119, and the number of properties under contract during this same period was 28.  Now, in May of 2007 the number of properties for sale was 129, with 37 having gone under agreement.  What this graph says to me more than anything is that buyers and sellers more and more are seeing eye to eye with respect to values. 

The third and final graph (above) measures what is referred to as the Monthly Supply of Inventory for Single Family homes in West Roxbury.  This indicator completes the telling of the story as to the overall condition of the single family market in West Roxbury.  It corroborates what the previous graph has shown us–that is that this market segment is definitely tightening up.  Specifically, it illustrates that the monthly supply of inventory is, in fact, in short supply–only 2.2 months.  In other words, if no other inventory were introduced to the West Roxbury single family market, then the existing supply would last only 2.2 months.  That is very short when you consider the rest of the single family market throughout the City of Boston is at 5.2 months MSI, and nationally at about 5.5 months MSI. 

There’s good news to be gleaned from all three (3) of these indicators.  Together they show a market in recovery and one that is definitely picking up steam.  To me, what I see is a much healthier market overall when compared to the hyper-inflated values and double-digit appreciation of the aforementioned 7-year historic cycle between 1998 and early 2005.  It may have been an exhilarating ride, but I for one am glad it’s over and, more imprtantly, a successful (soft-landing) return to normalcy is seemingly at hand.  Let’s hope it continues…

Next up:  The West Roxbury Condo Market (a slightly different story)

Looking for more news about the Boston real estate market? Consider subscribing to this blog's RSS feed and have articles like this delivered to your favorite feed reader whenever a new article is published.

Comments

• Frequent Contributors

  • Tim White
    Email Address
    Website
  • Veronique Mendelson
    Email Address
    Website
  • Helen Coen
    Email Address
    Website
  • Deirdre White
    Email Address
    Website
  • Lisa Sullivan
    Email Address
    Website
  • Maureen O'Keefe
    Email Address
    Website
  • Maureen Hayes Rossi
    Email Address
    Website
  • Robert Holley
    Email Address
    Website
  • Rona Cronin
    Email Address
    Website
  • Don Rankin
    Email Address
    Website
  • Carole White
    Email Address
    Website
  • Shari Cloran
    Email Address
    Website
  • Justin White
    Email Address
    Website

• Links

  • Alex
  • Donncha
  • Dougal
  • Matt
  • Michel
  • Mike
  • Ryan