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Historic West Roxbury Neighborhood Association Meeting Tackles Spate of Zoning Concerns

West Roxbury Neighborhood Meeting

Last Monday, a first-ever joint meeting between the Bellevue Hill Improvement and Higland Civic Associations moderated a lively discussion between residents, developers and local politicians over some recent zoning controversies stemming from two newly constructed properties and a proposed future development in West Roxbury.  Specifcally, two completed development projects on Grayfield Ave and a proposed development on Ruskin Street have spurred concerned residents, many of whom feel they have been left out of important decisions making processes and that their voices are not being heard, into action.  

The meeting drew a large crowd of West Roxbury residents as well as several At-Large City councilors and neighborhood councilors.  Present were At-Large Councilors John Connolly, Mike Flaherty and Steve Murphy as well as West Roxbury City Councilor John Tobin.

In addition, representatives from two other neighborhood groups were in attendance: Olivia Waishek, president of the West Roxbury Civic & Improvement Association, and Stephen Smith, president of the Charles River/Spring Valley Neighborhood Association.

Both the West Roxbury Bulletin and West Roxbury Transcript newspapers reported on the meeting.  The artciles can be found here:  http://tinyurl.com/6ctpxl and here http://blogs.townonline.com/parkwayBlog/?p=7241

Also, to learn all about Boston Zoning, go here: http://www.cityofboston.gov/bra/zoning/zoning.asp

A Nightmare on kELMan’s Street?

Attention traditional real estate professionals!  Want to know what Glen Kelman’s worst nightmare is?  Aside from spending another six hours being interviewed by Leslie Stahl of 60 Minutes, Mr. Kelman of Redfin may have unwittingly revealed to the audience of Bloggers at Inman’s Blogger Connect during his keynote address what really keeps him awake at night–that is: a blog army of traditional real estate professionals intently focused on producing high quality, hyper-local, consumer-centric real estate content on a city by city, town by town, or even neighborhood by neighborhood basis 7 days a week, 365 days a year.  

Apparently, the above scenario strikes fear in the hearts and minds of some of the newer entrants–the so-called web 2.0 companies–that are all the rave now.  And, by golly,  it should. 

Let it be known that I have no axe to grind against Mr. Kelman or his company.  On the contrary, I found him to be quite affable, knowledgeable and certainly presentable enough, and I wish him and his firm much success.  Anything that offers consumers more choice is O.K. with me. 

But let’s be honest.  There are many traditional Realtor’s who are not as eager for Redfin’s success–and perhaps some who may secretly wish for Redfin’s demise.  There are also some traditional agents who are perhaps fearful of some of the emerging business models and web 2.0 companies (e.g. Zillow, Trulia, Redfin, etc.).  But here’s something they may not know….

They fear us, too.

I’m not sure if fear is a good motivator for either side, but if you happen to be on the traditional side of things take note of Mr. Kelman’s nightmarish revelation.  The fact is that many of the tools available to these hi-tech firms are also available to the old school players who only need learn how to pick them up and use them.  According to Dale Stinton, there are currently 1.4 million Realtors members of NAR.  Could you imagine if even half that number started blogging in earnest about real estate in their respective communities, or even if one-third of them started engaging consumers on social networking sites such as Facebook or Myspace?

Forgetaboutit! 

My point is this: Mr. Kelman and the current cadre of Web 2.o firms are indeed onto something BIG (IMHO).  But instead of being fearful of this new breed of real estate technologists, traditional agents should learn from them, and embrace some of the same tools they use and the social media strategies they employ in order to level the playing field.  And then let’s compete head to head on things that matter to consumers: local knowledge, service, negotiating expertise and follow up. 

For more on hyper-local blogging, check out:
http://www.bloodhoundrealty.com/BloodhoundBlog/?p=864 
http://www.buzzmachine.com
 

Roslindale Real Estate Market in Review

Over the past week, I’ve reported in detail on the various residential real estate market dynamics at play in the Boston neighborhood of Roslindale in an effort to provide readers with a better sense of the current state of the market.  The analysis itself was broken down by residential property type (e.g. single family, condos and multi-family ) as each of these segments is distinct in that they not only speak to different audiences but also because the data subsets reflecting inventory and sales rates present unique trendlines for each segment.  Furthermore, we examined each property type segment over a 24-month period using as our tools certain key market indicators such as median sales price, supply and demand by # of units, and sales rates as measured by monthly supply of inventory (MSI) in order to “see” the market through a variety of lenses, thus adding precision and clarity.

This blog post is designed to bring it all home, so-to-speak, in terms of what’s happening overall in the Roslindale real estate market as of July 2007.  But first, a quick review:

Single Family Market Conditions–In a word, the single family market in Rolsindale has been consistent over the past 24 months in terms of median sales price, supply and demand by # of units, and the sales rate measured as monthly supply of inventory (MSI).  For a more detailed accounting of this market segment click here.

Condominium Market Conditions–A bit of a mixed bag.  The perception of this market segment as demonstrated by the median sales price is not in line with the reality of the market when taking into consideration such key market indicators as supply and demand by # of units and the sales rate MSI.  There appears to be somewhat of a stalemate between perceived value on the buyer’s side versus seller’s perceived value.  It may be that adjustments need to be made on both sides.  For a mored detailed accounting of this market segment click here.

Multi-Family Market Conditions–Presently, the multi-family market in Rolsindale is stagnant and values are declining.  Unfortunately, all the key market indicators are pointing to the same difficult reality for multis in Roslindale.  For a full account of this market segment click here…and to understand why the multi-family market in general has been experiencing tough days click here.

Overall, the real estate market in Rolsindale is struggling a bit.  Although there is strength in the single family market segment, the condo market is lackluster and the multi-family market has its share of problems to overcome before that segment can fully recover.  For sellers, the key to selling is having the proper motivation, perspective, and expectation and then, after being armed with the facts, determining a realistic sell price.  For buyers, there are many opportunities in all segments of the Rozzie market, but be prepared to act when the right one comes your way.

 NEXT UP:  A CLOSER LOOK AT THE JAMAICA PLAIN REAL ESTATE MARKET

The State of Multi-Family Real Estate Market in Roslindale

As any owner of a multi-family dwelling in Roslindale can tell you, especially those few who have recently sold or the many who are currently attempting to sell their properties, the real estate market for “multis” as such is tough going.  The reports coming in from agents in the Roslindale field who are working with multi-family buyers and sellers correspond pretty much with what the trend reports and statistical analysis are telling us–this market segment is presently stagnant.  In other words, every key market indicator–median sales price, supply and demand by number of units, and sales rate/monthly supply of inventory–coupled with our trusted “in the street” sources support this argument.  If there’s another reality out there I’d love to hear about it because I do not like being the bearer of bad news. 

For those of you interested in understanding why the multi-family market in Roslindale is a flat as it is, I can point to a confluence of contributing factors.  The antics of the sub-prime lending market over the past few years, a lackluster rental market, the condo conversion craze which spewed forth an oversupply of inventory, unsustainable appreciation rates, and ultimately the inability of multi-family properties owners to see a reasonable return on their investments no matter if they decide to rent or convert to condos–all of these factors have contributed to a weakening market segment.

A solution to the present condition of the multi-family market segment can only be found after a cold examination of the facts, some of which include:

Median Sales Price for Multi-Family Properties in Roslindale Over the Past 24 Months

Of all the key market indicators used in evaluating the condition of a market segment, the median sales prices over time is perhaps not the best measurement of the present state of the market, but it is still relevant when used in conjunction with other key indicators in terms of understanding where the market is as a whole.  The graph above illustrates a consistently downward sloping trend-line over time in terms of median sales prices.  By the numbers it shows that in June ‘05 the median sales price for multi-family properties in Roslindale was just over $600,000, however in June 0f ‘07 the median price is at $450,000 representing a 23% decline in value.  It also reveals that the average days on market (DOM) has nearly doubled. 

Supply and Demand by # of units for Multi-Family Properties in Roslindale Over Past 24 Months

Supply and demand by # of units is another key market indicator that speaks to the fluidity of a market segment.  Specifically to the number of properties for sale versus the number of properties that have gone under contract on a month-by-month basis.  Here, again, the news for multis in Rozzie is not great.  Over the past 2 years the amount of multi-family inventory has steadily increased while the number of properties going under contract has remained flat or has shown a slight decrease in number.  For example, in June of ‘05 there were 42 properties listed for sale with 8 going under contract.  In June of ‘07 there were 57 for sale with only 3 going under contract. 

Sales Rate by Monthly Supply of Inventory for Multi-Family Properties in Roslindale for Past 24 Months

The term “sales rate” is used to describe the relationship between inventory for sale and inventory sold in the from of a mathematical equation.  It is often expressed in terms of the current monthly supply of inventory (MSI) which basically means that in any given month, if no additional inventory were added to existing levels, how many months out would the current supply last.   Presently, in Roslindale existing levels of inventory for multi-family dwellings are projected to last 8.5 months based on June ‘07 figures.  In June ‘05 the MSI was at 3.5 months.

As I mentioned earlier, and as the evidence suggests, the real estate market for multi-families in Roslindale is indeed tough.  The best professional advice I can offer property owners in this market segment is to consider the facts as illustrated above and to come to grips with the market realities as best they can, and then adjust their expectations accordingly.  Basically, motivation is key to selling in this market, and if the motivation is there then the next step is to price the property aggressively.  There are plenty of buyers circulating in the market but they are only going to act if the price is right. 

The State of the Roslindale Condo Market

In part 2 of our series on the state of the real estate market in Roslindale, we’ll explore in detail the overall condition of condo market segment.  In the first installment of this series, we focused on Roslindale’s single family segment, and soon we’ll explore the health of the multi-family segment, but today it’s all about condos, condos, condos.  And the results are….

Well, to be honest it’s a bit of a mixed bag.  Although I have faith in the long term health of this market segment, right now it resembles something like the proverbial struggle between style vs. substance (perception vs. reality), and in this instance style seems to be trumping substance.  I know this sounds somewhat cryptic, so allow me to explain:

The reason why it’s important to use more than one analytic tool–defined as a key market indicators–when attempting to analyze the condition of any given market or market segment is that each tool reveals a unique perspective on the market, and when these key indicators, each of which performs a specific analytic function, are employed, they should provide for a more substantial glimpse into said market’s overall condition.  More tools = more dimensional depth and weight = more complete picture.  Fair enough?

Using a single tool, however, does not a story make.

For example, if we look at the Roslindale condo market through the lens of the key market indicator of ‘median sales prices over time,’ things ‘appear’ to be doing just fine relative to state of this market over the preceding 24 month period.

June 2007 figures notwithstanding, the graph depicts a market trending upward in terms of median sales price.  In fact, this upward trend for the last quarter shows a higher median sales price than at any other time in the past 2 years.  However, this good news is tempered by a rather precipitous June dip in median sales prices (and let’s hope that’s all it is–a dip). So, there it is– this upwardly trending ”style” of the Roslindale condo market–but, again, things are not always what they seem.  The fact is, however, that evaluating the market as a whole by looking only at median sales prices, is not a best practice approach. 

The next analytic tools we’ll employ–supply and demand by units and sales rate MSI–reveal a more complete picture by adding dimension, substance and weight to the analysis.  Unfortunately, the news depicted here for the Roslindale condo market is not as uplifting as the first graph might suggest.  Here is the ’substance:’

This graphs illustrates that the amount of inventory on the Roslindale condo market, although not at its highest, is well in excess of demand.  The demand itself is flat and even trending down slightly.  By the numbers, the were 87 condos for sale in June of 2007 with only 9 going under contract, compared to June 2005 where there were 81 condos for sale with 28 under contracts.  There is reason for concern here.  It appears as if sellers and buyers are not nearly aligned when it comes to opinions of condo values in Roslindale.  Either sellers need to adjust their expectations down or buyer must adjust theirs up, but somethings gotta give.  Right now it seems there’s a bit of a stalemate between the two sides.  The only condos that are selling it seems are the one that are priced aggressively.  There seems to be little motivation, based of the number of sales, on the buying or selling sides to adjust their respective postures.

Finally, lets look at what’s happening with the sales rate based on the monthly supply of inventory (MSI) for Condos in Roslindale

The term “sales rate” is used to describe the relationship between inventory for sale and inventory sold in the form of a mathematical equation.  It is often expressed in terms of the current monthly supply of inventory (MSI) which basically means that in any given month, if no additional inventory were added to existing levels, how many months out would the current supply last.   Presently, in Roslindale existing levels of inventory are projected to last 6.5 months out.  By comparison, in June ‘06 the MSI was at 5.5 months itself up from June ‘07 when the MSI was at 2.5 months.  It should also be noted that the average days on the market (DOM) for condos in Roslindale is hovering around 75 days.

Taking into consideration all three (3) of these key market indicators when applied to the condo market in Roslindale what I see is a market that looks good from the outside, but a closer look reveals some cracks in the armor.  It seems to me to be an issue of expectations:  Sellers perhaps being too high and buyers maybe overeaching a bit as well.  As such, we have stalemate.  Best advice to sellers is to act competitvely and realistically when pricing their condo units.  For buyers, there’s a deal wating for you in this market so don’t be afraid to pull the trigger.  It’s a great time to buy!

Single Family Market Conditions for Roslindale

As part of our continuing series on the Boston real estate market where we examine residential market dynamics at work on a neighborhood by neighborhood basis throughout the city (see Boston neighborhood market conditions ), this week our focus will be on the community of Roslindale.  The methodology we use is to analyze each individual market by property type (e.g. single family, multi-family and condos) since each of these subsets is unique and attract different audiences.  For example, a buyer looking for single family properties would probably not be so interested in what’s happening in the condo market, just as the seller of a multi-family unit may not care so much about what’s occurring in the single family market.  Buyers and sellers are mostly interested in the market subset for which they are considering a purchase or a sale–and that makes sense.  Having said that, there is still value and tying all of the market pieces together in order to get a sense of what is happening to the overall real estate market.  Here at rehubbub.com we look at both the completed puzzle and the pieces of which it is comprised.

Thus, the first installment of our examination of the residential real estate market for the Boston neighborhood of Roslindale will target the condition of the single family market.  Here, we will use as our tools the three (3) key indicators of median sales price, supply and demand and sales rate in order to dissect this market segment.  First, let’s take a look at what’s happening to median sales prices in Roslindale over the past 24 months.

Overall, the single family market in Roslindale has been surprisingly consistent over the past 24 months in terms of median sales values.  Surprising in the sense that many of the other neighborhoods of Boston in this category have seen more dramatic shifts in median prices than found here.  The above graph shows us that in the past 24 months the median sales prices have fallen only slightly.  By the numbers, in June of 2005 the median sales price was $386,000 while today the median price is $376,000, a difference of only 2.5%.  The good news here is that Roslindale is showing some stability in terms of single family property values.  There is, however, more to this story as the following graph illustrates:

In this chart we see at play a couple of trends impacting the Roslindale market such as increasing inventory (no real surprise) and an increase in the number of average days on market (DOM).  In June 2005 there were 65 single family homes available for sale with an average 48 days on the market.  In June, 2007, however, there are 89 listings for sale with an average DOM of 102 days.  The good news is that in the most recent quarter of 2007, the ratio of the number properties under contract versus those offered by sale is higher than it’s been in the past 12 months.  In summary, the market for single family homes in Roslindale is holding its’ own–and while it may be taking longer to sell a home and while there’s more competition now than has been the case, there is still significant sales activity occurring in this market segment.

Now, our final graph

What this graph illustrates is the rate of sales for single families in Roslindale which calculates the exact relationship between properties for sale and properties that have sold or have otherwise been taken off the market.  It is expressed in terms of the Monthly Supply of Inventory (MSI).  This indicator speaks to a tightening market in that it addresses how many months out the current supply of inventory will last.  Presently, it’s at 2.8 months which is fairly short, in fact the shortest it has been since June of 2005.  However, it’s important to note the seasonal adjustment here in the sense that during the summer months the amount of new inventory coming into a market typically slows down.

Considering these three (3) indicators of median sales price, supply and demand, and sales rate (MSI), the single family market in Roslindale is in fair shape.  Opportunities on the buy side remain strong, but sellers who are realistic with pricing should have no problem selling their property–it just may take a bit longer to do so.

NEXT UP:  ROSLINDALE’S CONDO MARKET

Review of Real Estate Market Conditions and Property Values in West Roxbury, MA

Over the past 10 days, I’ve reported in detail on the various market dynamics that influence residential property values in West Roxbury.  As noted in the three (3) previous posts written on this subject, in order to understand what is happening across the overall market segment for the end of the 2nd quarter in 2007, it was necessary to break the analysis down and examine the data in subsets.  First, we focused on West Roxbury’s single-family market segment, next we addressed the condition of the condo market, and, finally, we explored the goings on in the multi-family market.  Taken together, these three (3) market subsets tell us much of the story as to what’s happening in the residential marketplace for West Roxbury.

In this post, I will attempt to bring it all together in an effort to provide readers with a sense of what is occurring across the entire market.

A quick review:

• Single-Family Market–by far is in the best shape when compared to condos and multis.  The most significant aspect of this market segment as illustrated by its trend-line is that the ratio of single family homes under contract versus the total number of homes for sale is higher than at any other time in the past two (2) years.
• Condo Market–Although struggling over the past 18 months there are definite signs over the last quarter of a strengthening market.  While inventory is still a bit on the high side, the number of under contracts has been increasing in recent months.  Opportunities on the buy side remain strong.
• Multi-Family Market–Of the three (3) market segments, the multi-family market in West Roxbury has taken the hardest hit.  After investments in multi-families hit a fever pitch in 2003-2004, fueled in large part by the city-wide condo craze which spread like wildfire through Boston from 1999-2004, this market segment has experienced a significant downward shift in median sales prices and number of units sold. 

An interpretation of the real estate market data suggests that after an extended, but not necessarily dramatic (e.g. soft landing), adjustment period (some would say necessary market correction after an historic seven (7) run that saw in astonishing rate of appreciation year over year and subsequent rise in values), the market has returned to normalcy where there is a healthy balance of supply and demand overall.  While some segments have been slow to recover (i.e. multi-family), the market as a whole is, once again stable, and even beginning to tighten in some segments as some indicators suggest.

Next up:  The Roslindale Real Estate Market…

Market Conditions for Multi-Family Dwellings in West Roxbury, Ma

There was a time, a long time actually, when the real estate market for multi-family dwellings in Boston was hot, hot, hot.

Not so much anymore.

Why the change?  Well, the short answer is that the return on investment (ROI) for multi-family properties has been marginalized.  So as not to short-change the dedicated readers of rehubbub.com, however, allow me to give you the long answer (opinion) to the question of ‘what happened to the multi-family market in Boston.’ 

First, let me attempt to explain why this market segment was so hot for so long.  In my estimation, there were two 2) primary reasons:

1. For many years, right up until the mid-1990’s really, rental income on multi-family properties was more than sufficient to cover the cost of most owner’s monthly mortgage payment, including PMI (if applicable) and taxes.  In fact, it was often the case that this rental income, not only paid for the mortgage, insurance and taxes, but also provided the owner with residual income that was theirs to keep and do with what they wished.  Even if the owner of a multi-family dwelling was merely “breaking-even” in the sense that the rental income was only enough to carry the mortgage and related expenses, it was still a win-win for the owner.  Why?  Because the owner was not only building up equity in the property by paying down the mortgage note, but also because appreciation was adding to their property’s value.  Thus–by applying the logical equations of the time value of money–most landlords in Boston did quite well by investing in multi-families.   

However, the above mentioned conditions were no tightly kept secret–and it wasn’t long before many more people appeared on the scene who also wanted to invest in multi-family properties and realize some of the same benefits of those who came before them.  Soon, as the population of ready, willing and able investors grew, demand began to exceed supply–thus forcing values up, up, up.  So high, in fact, that the cost to finance a multi-family in Boston was no longer necessarily offset by the amount of rental income one could expect to get, even when factoring in the double-digit appreciation occurring year after year.  Thus, in this sense, ROI on multi-family investments was marginalized and it continues to be as such.

2.  Then, in the nick of time and before the multi-family market might well have gone flat, the condo-conversion craze hit the Boston real estate market, like a tsunami.  Now investors did not care so much about whether income received from rentals was enough to cover the mortgage payment, as they had no intention of keeping the property in their possession long enough to be affected by tenancy or rental income issues.  Instead, a brand new way to make money from investing in multi-family properties hit the scene–which was to convert the individual units to condominiums.  So, between the mid-1990’s, when the rental approach to profit from multi-families was hitting a financial wall, so-to-speak, through to around late 2004, investors were buying these multi-family properties in droves, quickly converting them to condos, and selling them just as quickly.  These were heady days and many investors made a lot of money through condo conversions.

But, market dynamics being what they are, with every action causing an equal and negative re-action, things changed once again.  This time, here’s what happened to the multi-family market:  Demand for multi-families exceeded supply (similar to what happened in above mentioned rental scenario #1); however, this was coupled with a new phenomenon–an oversupply, or glut, of new condos being introduced to the market, thereby creating more supply than demand forcing condo values to, at best, stabilize.  Essentially what had happened is that the multi-family/condo conversion market ended up cannibalizing itself. 

While there were other economic factors at work, those mentioned here certainly had a primary impact on the market dynamics.

So, where does this leave us?  What does the multi-family market look like today?  Suffice to say the landscape looks quite different. 

In keeping with our current theme of analyzing the Boston real estate market one neighborhood at a time, let’s turn our attention to the neighborhood of West Roxbury and look at the current state of the multi-family market contained therein.  As in previous posts on the West Roxbury market–the first of which addressed the single family market which was followed immediately by a post on the condo market –we will use as our tools the three (3) leading indicators of median sale prices, supply and demand by units, and the monthly supply of inventory (MSI) to dissect the multi-family market in order to give a sense of current condition of this market segment.

First, let’s look at the following graph which illustrates the median sales price trend-line of multi-family properties in West Roxbury over the past two (2) years:

This trend-line is not for the feint of heart, but keep in mind the size of the multi-family market in West Roxbury represents only about 10% of the overall market at any given point in time.  With numbers this small, it is not unusual to see significant swings month over month as a single sale or two can, at times, skew the numbers.  With that caveat, this trend analysis reveals a relatively static market when compared the hay days of the late 90’s through 2004.  By the numbers, the median sales price for multi-family dwellings in May 2005 was $635,000, but in May ‘06 it fell to $497,500–a 22% drop year to year.  The good news is that there has been an 11% rebound over the past 12 months with May ‘07 median sales price at $530,000.  Similar to the single-family and condo markets in West Roxbury reported on in earlier posts, the multi-family market segment had also experienced a market correction, albeit more dramatic, the single-family and condo segments.

Now, let’s analyze this next indicator which addresses basic supply and demand over the past 24 months.

Again, the news is not good for the multi-family market segment in terms of overall values and number of units sold.  This indicator measures the relationship between properties for sale versus properties that have gone under contract.  The first thing that stands out here is that this has not been a very good Spring market for multi-family dwellings in West Roxbury–especially when you consider there’s only been three (3) sales in the past three (3) months.  And though the amount of inventory for has remained relatively constant over the past two (2) years, the number of properties going under contract for the last 12 months has been cut nearly in half when compared with the first 12 months between May ‘05 and May ‘06

Our last indicator, the monthly supply of inventory (MSI), corroborates the previous two (2) trend-lines.  That is to say, typically, when median sales prices are down and the number of properties going under contract is also down, then is many cases the amount of time it takes to move inventory off the market increases.  And this is exactly what this indicator shows.  Since May 0f 2005, the monthly supply of inventory has increased steadily increased from 2.3 months to 3.8 months in 2006, and finally to it’s current rate of 6.8 months for May 2007.

So, what’s this all mean?  Obviously, the multi-family market in West Roxbury has gone through a significant downward shift over the past two (2) years when compared with the previous eight (8) years.  Is this surprising?  Well, when you consider that, at its height, the multi-family market surpassed both the single-family and the condominium market in terms of values and appreciation rates, is it really that surprising that when the market finally corrected itself that those property values that were once at the peak of the market are now getting a taste on the other end of things?  I think not.  What will happen to the multi-family market in Boston?  Not sure–but stay tuned as we will take another look at this market segment at year’s end.

Market Conditions for Condos in West Roxbury

In this second installment of a continuing series on how real estate market dynamics influence residential property values in Boston’s neighborhoods, the focus of this post will once again be on the community of West Roxbury–however this time we’ll target the condo market.  In our last segment, we considered the condition of the real estate market for single-family homes in West Roxbury, and determined that, overall, things were looking pretty good as there seems to be a healthy balance between the amount of inventory for sale and the number of ready, willing and able buyers circulating in the market.  This is good news for both buyers and sellers of single-family homes.

The condo market in West Roxbury, however, tells of a slightly different story, and although there is good new to be gleaned from a careful reading of condo market statistics, the story itself depicts a market segment struggling to recover from a prolonged exposure to downward pressures on sale prices.  Then again, some recent indicators suggest a rebound may be underway.

Before diving into the numbers and the graphs, let’s briefly review the specific purpose, extent and approach of this series of blog posts on the state of the Boston real estate market.  Suffice to say Boston is a significant real estate market in terms of its size and scope, and that it is comprised of multiple subsets of market dynamics between neighborhoods and different property types (condos, single and multi-family).  And although the over-all objective here is to provide readers with a detailed analysis of the real estate market throughout the City of Boston–and to provide insights into the health and condition of said market (which we will do in time)–to achieve this goal it is better to start small.  Thus the decision to approach this  market study on a neighborhood by neighborhood and property type by property type basis.  The cumulative effect of this approach, we hope, will provide readers with a firmer grasp of over-all market conditions city-wide.

Anyhow, back to the West Roxbury condo scene.

As in our earlier analysis of the West Roxbury’s single-family market, we will dissect the condo market by looking at it from different perspectives.  We will examine this segment by using three leading indicators as our tools.  They are:

• Median Sales Price — The mid-point of sale prices, where half the sales are below and half are above said point
• Basic Supply and Demand by Units — The number of for sale properties versus the number of properties that have gone under contract on a month by month basis
• Month Supply of Inventory (MSI) – Indicates how long the current supply of inventory will last (usually forecast by number of months out) given current market conditions and historical demand

So, starting with the median sales price indicator for condos in West Roxbury, let’s examine the following graph:

Again, using a 24-month time-line beginning in May 2005 and ending in May 2007, the trend-line above clearly suggests a steady, but not necessarily dramatic, downward drift of median sales prices.  The graph illustrates an adjustment in the condo market has occurred.  By the numbers, in May of 2005 the median price was at $260,500 compared to a May 2007 median price of $239,000–a difference of 8.25%.  However, the percentage difference between May 0f 2006 and May of 2007 is only about 3% to the negative–a sign perhaps that the downward pressure on price is subsiding.  Another good sign is that the average day on the market for condos in Wet Roxbury for May 2007 (83 day), while higher than in 2005 (70 days) , is in fact lower than the average days on the market for May 2006 (94 days). 

The next indicator, supply and demand by number of units, also suggests that the condo market in West Roxbury has been struggling a bit over the past 2 years.  The last quarter, however, does show signs that it is beginning to strengthen. 

Supply and demand by number of units measures the number of properties for sale versus the number of properties that have gone under contract on a monthly basis.  The postive news depicted by this graph is that in May 2007 the number of condo for sale (83) is shrinking and the number of condos going under contract (11) is increasing when compared with the same figures for May 2006 (113 units for sale/12 under contract).  So, although the condo market has had it’s problems there are definite signs that things are improving.  Still, opportunities for the buy side remains strong.

Finally, we look at the monthly supply of inventory (MSI) indicator for condos in West Roxbury. 

This graph speaks to how many months out it would take to move the current supply of inventory on the market.  Currently, the graph hows that it would take the West Roxbury condo market about 5.7 months to clear out current supplies.  This a little high when you consider that 4.5 months MSI is the current national average, however it is significantly down from May 2006 of 7.4 MSI. 

Again, taken together these three indicators–median sale price, supply and demand and monthly supply of inventory–provide for a good measure of current market conditions for condos in West Roxbury, and allow us to put our finger on the pulse of the market.  My reading of these indicators as applied to this segment is that although the condo market has had its share of difficulties in the past 24-months, which included some needed corrections, there are definite signs that things are heating up as is evidenced by the gap between for sale inventory and under contract inventory–which is decreasing with each passing month.

How’s the Real Estate Market Doing in Boston/West Roxbury?

As a Realtor, I often get asked the question by random people “how’s the market doing?”  It’s a great question, but one that I am rarely able to fully answer simply because most of the the time the person asking the question is looking for a quick answer (e.g. it’s up, it’s down, it’s holding steady).  Of course, there are times (such as during listing presentations) that I am able to explain more fully the dynamics that are occurring within a given market over a specific period of time regarding a particular property type (e.g. condo, single or multi-family homes), but even then I’m limited by the time allotted, usually by the client, for the presentation.  Nevertheless, the question of ‘how any market is doing’ is one of the most important ones that can be asked, and it deserves a full and comprehensive explanation-which is what I intend to start here today at rehubbub.com and continue to investigate and report on over the coming weeks and months. 

Because the topic is so expansive, however, coupled with the fact there is no one size fits all answer, I’d like to break the question itself and the subsequent answers into manageable pieces of easily digestible information, focusing on one segment of one market at a time.  My hope is, that over the next several months, I will be able to give readers a detailed and comprehensive sense of the current shape of the real estate market in each the neighborhood of Boston, as well as for Boston as a whole.

With respect to all the other wonderful neighborhoods comprising the City of Boston, I will begin this detailed analysis in my own back yard–that is the area of Boston known as West Roxbury (in time I will do the same for all of Boston’s neighborhoods).  Moreover, I will limit the first in this series on West Roxbury market dynamics to single-family homes.  I will further adjust the lens of this analysis by focusing on three (3) important indicators that, when taken together, tell a story as to the overall health of this market segment.  These indicator are as follows:

• Median Sales Price — The mid-point of sale prices, where half the sales are below and half are above said point
• Basic Supply and Demand by Units — The number of For Sale properties versus the number of properties that have gone under contract on a month by month basis
• Month Supply of Inventory (MSI) – Indicates how long the current supply of inventory will last (usually forecast by number of months out) given current market conditions and historical demand

When speaking intelligently about market conditions, or answering the question “how’s the market doing,” a good realtor will be able point to these leading indicators and explain, in plain English, what they mean to a prospective home buyer or seller.  It is, after-all, our job to accurately interpret market conditions and clearly communicate that knowledge to our clients. 

So, starting with the Median Sales Price indicator for Single Family homes in West Roxbury, let us examine the following graph:

First, the obvious:  This graph depicts a 24-month trend-line of median “sold” prices for single family homes in West Roxbury.  At first glance it may seem like the market has fallen of significantly since May of 2005 when the median sales price was $469,250 (May 2007 = $405,000), but there’s more to this story.  When taking this into context and aligned with the next two (2) graphs you will see that the market for single family homes is indeed strong and vibrant.  Has there been an adjustment in sales prices over the past 24 months?  Absolutely.  But it was a necessary correction coming on the heels of a 7-year run with historic highs not likely to be replicated in our lifetimes.  If you look closely, there is only a slight difference (roughly 1%) in median prices between May 2006 and May 2007.  The good news for home sellers is that the market is tightening and forcing an upward trend as is evidenced by nearly a full quarter (Feb-May 2007) of activity.  There is also good news for home buyers here as it is always a good time to invest in real estate when median prices are trending upward.

As I mentioned earlier it takes more than one indicator to tell the whole story.  This next graph illustrates an interesting trend in supply and demand by number of units over the past 24 months. 

What surprised me when I first studied this graph is that the ratio of single family homes under contract versus the total number of homes for sale is higher than at any other time in the past two (2) years.  Where as the last graph had shown us that a downward adjustment in sold pricing did in fact occur, this graph tells us that the market has accepted that correction, and moved on–showing definite signs that we are in a full recovery mode.  By the numbers, this graph shows that the number of for sale properties in May of 2005 was 119, and the number of properties under contract during this same period was 28.  Now, in May of 2007 the number of properties for sale was 129, with 37 having gone under agreement.  What this graph says to me more than anything is that buyers and sellers more and more are seeing eye to eye with respect to values. 

The third and final graph (above) measures what is referred to as the Monthly Supply of Inventory for Single Family homes in West Roxbury.  This indicator completes the telling of the story as to the overall condition of the single family market in West Roxbury.  It corroborates what the previous graph has shown us–that is that this market segment is definitely tightening up.  Specifically, it illustrates that the monthly supply of inventory is, in fact, in short supply–only 2.2 months.  In other words, if no other inventory were introduced to the West Roxbury single family market, then the existing supply would last only 2.2 months.  That is very short when you consider the rest of the single family market throughout the City of Boston is at 5.2 months MSI, and nationally at about 5.5 months MSI. 

There’s good news to be gleaned from all three (3) of these indicators.  Together they show a market in recovery and one that is definitely picking up steam.  To me, what I see is a much healthier market overall when compared to the hyper-inflated values and double-digit appreciation of the aforementioned 7-year historic cycle between 1998 and early 2005.  It may have been an exhilarating ride, but I for one am glad it’s over and, more imprtantly, a successful (soft-landing) return to normalcy is seemingly at hand.  Let’s hope it continues…

Next up:  The West Roxbury Condo Market (a slightly different story)

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